Hypothetical Presidential Race Results

According to a poll SurveyUSA conducted on 26-28 FEB, McCain will carry our state in the upcoming Presidential race: if Democrats nominate Barack Obama, McCain wins Louisiana 54-39; if Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, McCain wins 51-41. Clinton is more competitive than Obama by a five point margin, which is larger than the poll’s margin of error of 4.1%.

The poll’s crosstabs provide a few explanations for Clinton’s ability to wage a more competitive race against McCain in Louisiana than Obama: Clinton wins women voters 47-45, while McCain wins this constituency 51-42 when matched against Obama; Clinton wins registered Democrats with a 38 point margin, while Obama wins this constituency with a 31 point margin; Clinton wins working class and poorer voters with a 17 point margin, while Obama wins this constituency with a 3 point margin; and Clinton attracts 5% more unaffiliated voters than Obama. Clinton is also more competitive than Obama in Orleans metro: she ties McCain 46-46 in southeast Louisiana, while Obama loses that region to McCain by a 10 point margin. Obama, however, attracts more African-American votes than Clinton: he wins this constituency 84-11, while Clinton carries this group 70-12.

Although the use value of SurveyUSA’s poll is somewhat limited at this early date, the results do warrant discussion and debate. Do you agree with the results? Who do you believe is the most electable Democrat in the state? Do you believe these results will change once Democrats select our nominee? And which nominee do you believe will help or hinder Democrats running for the US Senate and the US House in our state?

Responses

Ian McGibboney

March 6, 2008

I think the Louisiana primary answered that question. Though only Democrats voted, Obama’s numbers among independent voters is likely to be high. I don’t see Hillary posting huge numbers of independents, and McCain isn’t even a lock among conservatives.

Louisiana has picked the last 11 winners, a streak I expect to be snapped when the state goes red this cycle. After all, your numbers show McCain beating either Democrat, and the state seems to have become a neocon paradise of sorts.

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Ryan

March 7, 2008

Just because Hillary wins Louisiana means little in the big picture. You’re showing the trees, but missing the forest. That same Survey USA poll showed Obama winning more Electoral Votes than HIllary. While both would beat McCain in a contest today, they would do so with completely different maps.

As a matter of fact, neither candidate helps the downticket race in this state. But Obama wins some states that Hillary does not – Colorado, Oregon, Washington (state), come to mind.

Y’all need to go see the maps here.

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pointecoupeedemocrat

March 7, 2008

actually, ryan, hillary wins arkansas, west virginia and florida. moreover, she holds mccain to a dead heat in tennessee. in other words, she is very competitive in the south, a region i am unwilling to concede to the republicans. and obama, interestingly, loses pennsylvania and new jersey, and i notice he and mccain are nearly tied in massachusetts. the white catholic vote, a vote i believe is very important both here and throughout the country, seems to abandon obama for mccain. if we desire to win in november, we must mobilize the support of this key constituency, a constituency to which i and many here in louisiana belong.

because this blog is concerned with louisiana politics, i focus on the performance of the candidates in LA. and no, i do not ignore what you are calling the forest by gazing too long at the bayou, for both candidates win the general election. more important, however, is the data in our state, for it reveals that hillary is indeed the stronger candidate by a statistically significant margin of 5%. did you review the crosstabs? why not engage in a discussion of that data? why are working class voters and women in our state supporting hillary and not obama? or are working class voters, women and southerners suddenly unimportant?

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