The Republican noise machine, particularly Moon Griffon and his listeners at KALB-TV Alexandria, are referring to the results of the jungle primary as "a mandate." According to those who are exploiting this trope for all that it may be worth, Jindal has every reason to involve himself in the outstanding legislative races. Too bad they fail to realize that 54% is not a mandate. But too bad they have every intention to pollute the mediascape with the byproducts of all the partisan bilge they are spoonfed by the Republican Party operatives who bankroll their enterprises.

That Jindal has affirmed an unwillingness to become engaged with local legislative races, races whose outcomes he hopes will be so many iterations of his “mandate,” is not surprisingly to these demagogues’ exasperation. Or perhaps it is not, for Jindal need not avail himself of these races; the LCRM and the Louisiana Republican Party, organizations respectively led by David Vitter and Roger Villère, already have, and they will perform all the discursive and logistical work Jindal ostensibly refuses to undertake. This should be of no surprise, for Vitter and Villère started to perform the roles of Jindal’s outspoken, malevolent political operatives at the very moment Jindal decided to cast himself as the benevolent reformer who would “officially” run for Governor a second time.

Stephen Sabludowsky of the Bayou Buzz has likened this bifurcated strategy of the silent and aloof Jindal and the vocal and rabid Villère and Vitter to one of ” good cop, bad cop”, and there is every indication that this will continue through the runoff period. Jindal’s planned and coordinated silence during what will be a highly contentious month of campaigning is, in other words, a political strategy. Indeed, it is so much malevolent benevolence, especially as he is acutely aware of the operations of organizations such as the LCRM that are working on his Party’s behalf. This, I believe, will be Jindal’s public image for the next four years: he will grin and assure everyone of the state’s unity while Republican Party operatives destroy the lives and reputations of every Democratic politician. Welcome to a new era of Louisiana politics. But it is not so new: what comes to mind unbidden are the 2002 and 2004 election cycles.

This rhetoric of mandate has been deployed by Jindal and those who collude with the LA GOP’s operatives for a reason: one legislative chamber, the state House of Representatives, remains in the balance, and the Republican Party desires a legislature that will approve Jindal’s policies wholesale, hook, line and sinker, even if they do not resonate on a local level. Louisiana, we all know, seats 105 Representatives in the state House, a chamber designed to address the local concerns of all Louisianans. The Representatives housed therein are not elected by their constituents in order to impose policies drafted by political operatives in Baton Rouge in every parish and municipality; they are elected by highly localized constituencies in order to voice the latter’s concerns and to ensure that legislative solutions to local problems are enacted. To claim that Representatives are to be so many representations of a chimerical “mandate” imposed from without and not generated from within is tantamount to reversing the structure of the legislature and of the legislative process. For bills will not be shaped and determined by local exigencies; they will be informed by utterly foreign ideologies. And even worse, Representatives will represent politicians in Baton Rouge and policy researchers in Washington, DC, not the citizens of the parish(es) who elected them. If the state House of Representatives is to fulfill its intended role and purpose, this notion of mandate over which the Republicans are crowing must be bracketed and shelved.

Democrats have emerged from the jungle primary with 34 state House seats, four more than the 30 the Republicans presently control. Joel Robideaux, the sole Independent in the House, was elected at the close of the Qualifying Period, as he was unopposed. Joining the House Democrats and Republicans will be the 11 Democrats and 12 Republicans who will emerge from the following nonpartisan runoffs:

District 15
Paul Hargrove (R)
Frank Hoffmann (R)

District 20
Noble Ellington (D)
“Cleve” Womack (D)

District 34
“A.B.” Franklin (D)
Tony Guillory (D)

District 44
Rickey Hardy (D)
Christopher “Chris” Williams (D)

District 48
Taylor F. Barras (D)
Shane Romero (D)

District 50
Sam Jones (D)
Allen A. McElory, Jr. (D)

District 58
Elton M. Aubert (D)
Troy Brown (D)

District 67
Lorri Burgess (D)
Patricia Smith (D)

District 68
Kyle Ardoin (R)
“Steve” Carter (R)

District 69
“Bill” Benedetto (R)
Erich Ponti (R)

District 70
“Pat” Culberson (R)
Franklin J. Foil (R)

District 71
J. Rogers Pope (R)
John Ware (R)

District 72
John Bel Edwards (D)
George R. Tucker (D)

District 73
Michelle Aycock (R)
“Steve” Pugh (R)

District 74
Adam Ackel (R)
Scott Simon (R)

District 76
Lee Balinas (R)
“Ray” Canada (R)

District 77
Colleen Howley (R)
John M. Shroder (R)

District 78
Kirk Talbot (R)
Tiffany Scott Wilken (R)

District 79
George L. Branigan (R)
“Tony” Ligi (R)

District 91
Judy Bajoie-Phillips (D)
“Walt” Leger III (D)

District 92
Michael McMyne (R)
“Tom” Willmott (R)

District 95
Una Anderson (D)
Walker Hines (D)

District 98
Neil Abramson (D)
James P. Johnson (D)

The partisan distribution of House seats when these nonpartisan runoffs are considered is 45 Democrats, 42 Republicans and 1 Independent. This leaves 17 seats, all of which will be assumed by the winner of a partisan runoff. 45 Democrats, 42 Republicans, 1 Independent and 17 partisan runoffs: the race for a majority in the state House could not be more competitive. And the competition will be fierce, indeed severe: Republican candidates in these partisan runoffs will receive the financial and logistical support of the LCRM; Democratic candidates will have to contend with the LCRM’s mailers and television commercials, the content of which has been so offensive that even Lance Maxwell, the Republican candidate for LA-HD25 who was and will be one of the beneficiaries of these advertisments, felt obliged to repudiate the organization that financially sustains his campaign; and Republicans will attempt to bludgeon Democrats with the seemingly unstoppable narrative of Jindal’s “mandate” the sycophantic and obsequious media has been and will be propagating. It is, to be sure, a toxic environment, but Democrats can emerge victorious if they are able to remind voters that Representatives are local advocates, not mere reflections of a political ideology manufactured by Republican operatives in Baton Rouge and Washington, DC. “Reflect,” by the way, is a word I adapt from Jindal’s response to a question about the legislative races posed during his press conference on Sunday.

Here is a list of the 17 partisan runoffs that will determine who controls the state House of Representatives:

District 7 – Caddo and DeSoto Parishes
Richard “Richie” Burford (R)
Kenny Ray Cox (D)

District 14 – East Carroll, Morehouse, Ouachita and West Carroll Parishes
“Sam” Little (R)
“Buddy” Quinn (D)

District 23 – Natchitoches and Winn Parishes
“Rick” Nowlin (R)
Joseph Michael “Joe” Sampité (D)

District 24 – DeSoto, Red River, Sabine and Vernon Parishes
“Frankie” Howard (R)
Mary Ann Wiggins (D)

District 25 – Rapides and Vernon Parishes
Lance Maxwell (R)
“Chris” Roy, Jr. (D)

District 28 – Avoyelles Parish
Robert Johnson (D)
Kirby Roy, III (R)

District 30 – Beauregard and Vernon Parishes
James Armes (D)
“Jack” Causey (R)

District 32 – Allen, Beauregard and Vernon Parishes
James David Cain (R)
Dorothy Sue Hill (D)

District 37 – Calcasieu and Jefferson Davis Parishes
John E. “Johnny” Guinn (R)
Kyle Reed (D)

District 39 – Lafayette, St. Landry and St. Martin Parishes
Bobby G. Badon (D)
Raymond “LaLa” LaLonde (R)

District 51 – Assumption, St. Mary and Terrebonne Parishes
Carla Blanchard Dartez (D)
“Joe” Harrison (R)

District 54 – Jefferson and Lafourche Parishes
Jerry “Truck” Gisclair (D)
Mitchell “Mitch” Theriot (R)

District 55 – Lafourche Parish
Michael “Mike” Matherne (D)
Jerome “Dee” Richard (R)

District 57 – St. James and St. John the Baptist Parishes
“Geri” Broussard Baloney (D)
Nickie Monica (R)

District 83 – Jefferson Parish
Robert E. Billiot (D)
Danyelle Taylor (R)

District 94 – Orleans Parish
Deborah Langhoff (D)
Nicholas J. “Nick” Larusso (R)

District 103 – Orleans and Saint Bernard Parishes
Reed S. Henderson (D)
Mark Madary (R)

Democrats must win eight of these races if they desire to retain their majority in the state House. Republicans, on the other hand, must be victorious in 11 if their planned takeover of the lower chamber is to be realized. While the numbers are to our favor, the task is tall and the organization of the Republican apparatus redoubtable. But as DemEAUXcrats, we are not running on ideology or on a platform served to us in a manuel drafted by the Republican operatives in Washington, DC, who advise David Vitter’s LCRM; we are campaigning on our committment to serve the constituents who elect us. As DemEAUXcrats, we understand all politics and all mandates to be wholly local affairs. This, mes amis, explains why we will win these runoffs.

 

2 thoughts

  1. Consulting the Secretary of State’s website (now actually up!), Democrats won majorities of the vote in 12 of the 17 districts, with 57%+ majorities in 10 of them. GOoPers won majorities in 5 districts, with 57%+ majorities in only 2.

    Closest races:
    District 55- Rs 6937, Ds 6736
    District 30- Rs 4213, D 3971
    District 37- Ds 6883, Rs 6017
    District 32- Ds 7252, R 5528, N 714 (R+N 6242)
    District 103- Rs 3486, Ds 1985, N 895 (D+N 2880)

    Outside of those five races, the Democrats would hold a 55-44-1 majority if the other races hold true to form.

  2. Brian J.,

    Thank you for your incisive comment. Many Democrats appear poised to win these runoffs if one relies on the partisan distribution during the jungle primary. But runoffs, as you know, are sometimes unpredictable, and the negative advertising the LCRM is surely ready to unload on these candiates may skew the results to their favor. Other factors to consider are turnout, the ability of the candidates to build coalitions and gain endorsements, and general interest in the race itself.

    But perhaps we should provide the data for everyone’s perusal. Remember, however, that some runoffs are unpredictable, and local factors can tilt the election to one candidate for reasons no one can anticipate. When I claim one Party’s candidate is favored, I base it on the numbers alone. At some point the dynamics of each race will have to be discussed.

    7 – 5,849 R/7,550 D 44/56, D favored

    14 – 7,666 R/5,262 D 59/42, R favored

    23 – 4,849 R/8,904 D 35/65, D favored

    24 – 4,414 R/9,818 D 31/69, D favored

    25 – 6,226 R/8,820 D 41/59, D favored

    28 – 4,614 R/10,168 D 31/69, D favored

    30 – 4,213 R/3,971 D 51/49, toss up

    32 – 5,528 R/7,252 D/714 N 41/54/5, D favored

    37 – 6,017 R/6,883 D 47/53, toss up

    39 – 4,352 R/10,375 D 30/70, D favored

    51 – 4,027 R/7,057 D 36/64, D favored

    54 – 4,797 R/8,218 D 37/63, D favored

    55 – 1,375R/6,736 D/5,562 N 10/49/41, tossup

    57 – 4,827 R/11,673 D 29/71, D favored

    83 – 2,913 R/5,564 D 34/66, D favored

    94 – 6,367 R/2,638 D/166 N 69/29/2, R favored

    103 – 3,486 R/1,985 D/895 N 54/32/14, R favored

    If we are to make a prediction with this data, there will be 56 Ds, 45Rs, 1I, and 3 tossups. But again, one can only make so many assumptions with jungle primary elections. And I am always one to err on the side of caution.

    But thank you for broaching this discussion. I hope to hear from you more often. Thank you again for your comment.

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