LA-04: With McCrery Out, Democrats Can Seize Opportunity

During the first week of December 2007, Louisiana Congressman Jim McCrery (R-Leesville) announced that he will not be seeking re-election in 2008. When he was first elected in 1988, McCrery was only the sixth Republican to represent Louisiana since Reconstruction. District 4 encompasses all of Northwest Louisiana, including, most notably, Shreveport, Natchitoches, and Bossier City, and although the district has remained under Republican representation throughout the past twenty years, there is ample evidence to suggest that it can be highly competitive.

As PointeCoupeeDemocrat points out, District Four is not exactly a Republican stronghold. Indeed, Senator Mary Landrieu carried the district in her successful re-election bid in 2002, and Bobby Jindal failed to garner majorities in seven of its thirteen parishes (54%) in the 2007 jungle. PCD notes, “Jindal did fail to garner pluralities in Red River and Bienville parishes. And while he did garner pluralities in the other parishes, they were not majorities, which is why they are colored blue in the map.” Thank you to PCD for creating these maps:

In other words, this is not a seat worth ignoring or writing off. In addition to Landrieu’s successes, Democrats have been elected to many powerful positions in the district; most significantly was the election of Cedric Glover as the first African-American mayor of the City of Shreveport.

And speaking of the mayor of Shreveport, many are suggesting that former Mayor Keith Hightower would be an ideal candidate for Congress. Hightower first entered political life after defeating an incumbent Republican, Bo Williams, by double digits, and in 2002, he was re-elected in a landslide, earning 75% of the vote. As mayor of Shreveport, Hightower was committed to increasing opportunities for economic development, improving Shreveport’s riverfront and downtown, and rehabilitating blighted neighborhoods. And he was, by and large, successful. Shreveport has transitioned from a city reliant on the oil and gas industry to (after the fields dried up and business moved off-shore) a tourist and convention destination for North Louisiana and East Texas. (And yes, that’s Mayor Hightower on the right with his wife and two daughters).

Responses

pointecoupeedemocrat

January 17, 2008

Hightower can win this district. Landrieu, by the way, narrowly won LA-04 during the 2002 runoff, and Jindal failed to cobble together a majority in LA-04 during the 2007 gubernatorial jungle primary.

Because Mary Landrieu won all the parishes in which Jindal failed to garner majorities, one can assume partisan identification in statewide races has remained relatively stable over the past six years. This bodes well for the Democrats, especially if they field a candidate with name recognition and a strong political record.

The margins of victory are slim, however. Here is some data for those who are numerically inclined:

2007 Gubernatorial Jungle Primary
Jindal – 87,909 (49.20%)
Others – 90,762 (50.80%)

2002 Senatorial Runoff
Landrieu – 86,052 (51.35%)
Terrell – 81,514 (48.65%)

Reply
Lamar White, Jr

January 17, 2008

There is no doubt it’s a tight district. But I agree that Hightower can win this district. Look for the Republicans to play up the Tax Incremental Financing district that he proposed for downtown Shreveport and the hotel/convention center that Shreveport built during his tenure. Of course, in both cases, similar tactics have been employed by Republicans in order to help float their own business interests, but Hightower’s projects didn’t enrich entrenched interests (i.e. the oil and gas lobby). They were specifically focused on developing tourism and Shreveport’s retail/service/film industries. (And film is now a major component of Shreveport’s economy, thanks, in large part, to Hightower’s pro-active encouragement).

Personally, I know that his work on rehabilitating blighted neighborhoods has yielded tangibly successful results. A few weeks ago, it was announced that a major studio will be built in an area that had been targeted by Hightower’s and Glover’s administrations.

Republicans will look back to Vitter’s 2004 election, but we should all agree that, right now, Vitter is more of a liability than an asset, and while his numbers may be instructive for some, they are hardly a reflection of current reality.

Reply
pointecoupeedemocrat

January 17, 2008

Certainly Hightower’s success as Mayor of Shreveport will be a factor if he chooses to run for McCrery’s seat. And yes, Republicans will trumpet Vitter’s performance in 2004 in order to dampen Democratic prospects. All of us recall how this the case with the marketing campaign of David Vitter’s LCRM during the last election cycle.

Let us review the data for LA-04 from 2004:

2004 Senatorial Jungle Primary
Vitter 131,078 (53.62%)
Others 113,384 (46.38%)

In addition to the parishes Terrell and Jindal respectively won in 2002 and 2007, Vitter also garnered majorities in Webster and Claiborne Parishes, which I view as the swing parishes of LA-04.

But allow me to qualify the 2004 results: Vitter ran with an incumbent Republican President who was the Governor of a neighboring state; the Republican running in LA-04 in 2008 will not enjoy the coattails of an incumbent Republican President; the approval ratings of Congress are miserable; the Republicans are the incumbent Party for McCrery’s seat; and the approval ratings for Bush are at the lowest they have ever been. Because the current political environment radically differs from that of 2004, any Republican running for McCrery’s seat cannot rely on her or his Party identification in order to win the general election. Moreover, the DCCC has raised $30 million more than the NRCC, which is already burdened with the daunting task of defending more than 10 open Republican seats during the 2008 election cycle.

Reply
Drew Ward

January 18, 2008

This may be a moot point given the population concentration in the Shreveport Metro area, but what are the chances of a viable candidate from Natchitoches or Leesville?

Together Sabine, Vernon, and Beauregard make up a good republican stronghold, but having a candidate closer to their interests might certainly bypass and party leanings the area has historically held.

Not to mention it would be better for Cenla and since in the grand scheme of things our congressional abilities seem limited to being either Shreveport or Monroe’s political bitches having a new representative from below I-20 couldn’t hurt.

Another thing to consider here is the map from the Democratic party article which shows that the dems in may of these 4th district parishes have nearly no local party organization.

You’ve got to start somewhere. The republicans will start in every local protestant church they can find to get their vote out. If the dems are going to compete and the grassroots level they’d better get busy and plant some grass!

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