Precinct by Precinct Analysis of the Mayoral Election
Although the results won’t be made official until Tuesday, the Louisiana Secretary of State is still offering an unofficial precinct by precinct breakdown of the Alexandria mayoral election, and its results are interesting.
* Jacques Roy won the early or absentee voting by a significant margin, 42%, particularly when one considers the fact that he faced six other candidates.
* Roosevelt Johnson won the most votes in eighteen (18) of the forty-one (41) precincts, primarily precincts in South and Southeast Alexandria. Several of the precincts won by Mr. Johnson recorded exceptionally low turnout.
* One precinct recorded zero votes.
* Joe Fuller won the most votes in three precincts, one of which he won by garnering a total of three (3) votes.
* Interestingly, Delores Brewer, who has unofficially placed in second, won the most votes in only two precincts, one of which she won by collecting a total of only 13 (thirteen) votes and the other of which, C18, votes at Bolton High School.
* Jacques Roy won the most votes in seventeen (17) of the forty-one (41) precincts, including both precincts at Alexandria Senior High, both precincts at Nachman Elementary, and both precincts at Cherokee Elementary.
* Jacques Roy garnered more votes than Delores Brewer in thirty-four (34) out of forty-one (41) precincts, and of those in which Brewer edged out Roy, the margin of victory was, for the most part, in the single digits.
* Precinct by precinct analysis indicates that Jacques Roy received a significant number of crossover votes. That is, he garnered strong second and third place finishes in a number of precincts in which Mr. Johnson and Mr. Fuller finished in first or second place.
* It appears that white voter turnout far surpassed African-American voter turnout. It should be noted that in some of the precincts claimed by Mr. Johnson, the total votes collected were only in the double digits. However, Mr. Johnson also appears to have garnered a number of crossover votes as well, placing a strong second or third place in many of the precincts captured by Jacques Roy.
* The precinct with the most turnout appears to be C36, which I believe is Charles Park, with a total of 921 votes. (Correct me if I am wrong).
How to Interpret the Data:
As a disclaimer, I do not claim to be a political scientist, though I have studied the discourse, and as was reported on KALB (thanks for the plug, guys), I am a strong supporter of Jacques Roy.
The data illustrates a number of interesting trends. First, it indicates the growth of Alexandria, spreading South and Southwest. Those precincts recorded the most number of votes.
It also shows that in precincts in which the majority of voters are white, Mrs. Brewer garnered enough votes to put her (unofficially) in second place, as she finished a strong second to Jacques Roy in most of those precincts.
However, it also shows the crossover appeal of Mr. Roy. He was able to capture votes in every active precinct (note: again, one precinct, C22, recorded no votes for all seven candidates. That is, an entire precinct didn’t even vote). Mrs. Brewer received zero votes in two precincts, excluding C22.
Additionally Mr. Roy received votes in the double digits in nearly every precinct located in majority African-American neighborhoods, while Mrs. Brewer’s votes were capped in the single digits.
What does this mean?
You decide.
CenLamar 
You need to get “Babbling” Babbs Zimmerman to give you an in-depth analysis of the election results.
It means that Roy is the next Mayor regardless of who is in 2nd place. If it is Johnson he will get 90% of the Brewer vote, if it is Brewer he will get most of the Johnson vote. Either way he is the next Mayor.
What does this mean?
Absolutely no chance of any waterslide, waterpark, slip-n-slide, or even a damn city-owned sprinkler that we can run really fast through while giggling like little girls. Son of a Bitch!
I am going to have a cup of coffee with Red.
What does this mean?
It’s on.
You are cracking me up, waterslide.
You are cracking me up, waterslide.
from Cenla Antics
Anonymous said…
Do you think that the amateurs: Sams, Slatkin, Lampert, White, or Hickman, will ever interrupt their lives or professional careers again to try to contribute thru public service? I’m really curious because these were all smart educated committed candidates with nothing to gain. Have any of them commented on their feelings or plans for future involvement? I think the council elections are really discouraging to decent people and potential quality candidates.
Monday, October 02, 2006 8:57:57 AM
from Cenla Antics:
jo jo is bad bad said…
I am advised by someone who is advised that there are no real problems with the voting in District 4 or the city as a whole and the only difficulty that arose was from stupid negligent uninformed uncaring don’t-give-a-shit voters.
This manifestation of true public service and human sensitivity came from your Registrar of Voters Office. We must remember her efficiency and warmth.
Monday, October 02, 2006 12:14:37 PM
Delores said she welcomes the opportunity for a debate.
Anyone think that’s actually gonna happen?
no…brewer drops out this week
Thanks for all you do, Lamar.
Slide,
if it’s any consolation, I’ve got an awesome “Finding Nemo” sprinkler hooked up to my waterhose in the back yard that my 4 year old runs through. I’ve also got an “open gate policy” Feel free anytime!
Hey No Truce,
Correct me if I’m wrong, but if you’re referring to Friday night at the corner of Jackson and MacArthur, I believe the hard of hearing boy with the fashionable socks said “Party on”.
maybe we can get one of those city buses to take us all to Watertown or Blue Bayou.
If I’m not mistaken, I believe that is exactly what Fuller and his team did after the numbers came in. “Fuck it” Said Fuller, “I been waiting on this day for a long time. I’m gonna celebrate anyway. Lets go have some real fun.” That’s why he couldn’t be reached for comment Sat. night.
I think cenlamar.blogspot.com saved my marriage. We used to read (me) and watch tv (him) in separate rooms. Now we read the blogs together. Mad props “Dr. Lamar”.
Is it me, or do you guys think KALB should have publicly apologized to Roosevelt and all his supporters for mistakenly telling him he was in the run-off. That hurt just watching it, and I supported another candidate.
Remember Roosevelt WORKS at KALB. I bet it was tough going to work today.
nah it wasnt kalb’s fault. by the time the johnson h.q. interview was broadcast saturday night we bloggers over on cenla antics – spanky and civil sentient help us out here – had called it for councilman johnson as well.
yeah it was unfortunate and painful but kalb’s actions werent cavilier or irresponsible.
we arent saying that just because bloggers said it was so that it should have been broadcast just that we all made the same mistake too.
anyway, people can do whatever they want but we dont feel beating up on kalb is warranted.
-this time 😛
Hey waterslide, will can still build a waterslide that empties into the red river and have fuller,sams,charles fredrick,delores and red all hold hands as they shoot off into the river. And Sams can dress like Mary Poppins.
HAHAHAHA!
Hey bloodbrother. Don’t forget about that boy with the dick socks.
Look at the numbers. Brewer doesn’t stand a chance. How is she going to pull votes from CFS, Roosevelt, and JOE??
What can she do to win?? Spending lots of money hasn’t helped.
Brewer only took 2 precincts from what I can see from Jacques. Here’s the problem. Neither of them “won” in our socially and economically challenged precincts. Those were won either by Roosevelt or Fuller. Jacques did have far more cross over votes in those precincts, but the key is going to be getting those people to the polls a second time around.
Brewer needs to get out of the race…who ever gives her $$$ from here on out needs to have their head examined! They might as well drive down I-49 and throw their $$ out the window. I have spoken to some of her major supporters and they concur:)
Obviously, I am not one.
What’s interesting is that in some of our “challenged” neighborhoods Sams out performed Brewer. In some instances “Red” even beat her. She obviously went for a specific demographic and neglected the overall demographic of the City.
we saw that,
how do you get to the new blogspot you show on your website. Your link does not work.
Swinehart took Brewer’s money and then gave up on her in the last 10 days of the race when he thought she was out of money. He’s of the same ilk at Roy Fletcher–only he lives in Florida to top it off. Dirty, old political hacks.
truce – apparantly that blog has been deleted.
Raising money will be next to impossible for Brewer now. It’s very clear to most people who have looked at the numbers from Saturday and at the demographics that she cannot win against Roy. Her only chance was to be in against Roosevelt. Still difficult, but much more doable than running off against Roy. If she insists on running this off, she will have to spend a boat load of her own money. Then, she still wouldn’t win.
TT website reports that the vote is official. Nothing changed. Roy and Brewer in the runoff. Also reported that Roosevelt has until Monday to file an objection.
What do ya’ll think about the numbers? I am sure Johnson is just sick about this. You can’t blame him. So close, but yet so far.