I want to say that I was aware of the change in the process. However, I wasn’t sure when that would take effect, and at 42, it’s hard not to think of the elections in terms of the older jungle primary system.

You are correct of course, that Mitch will have an advantage in a closed Democratic primary, especially with the black vote. There is no viable black senatorial candidate, nor one on the horizon, from either party (which is a shame). It would depend on how well Melancon and Bernard (a rare Democrat for which I could vote without holding my nose) get the white vote to tip for them. With Mitch out, perhaps John gets the benefit of the black vote, but not as reliably as Landrieu would.

The only things going for Vitter, 1.) Incumbency, 2.) His scandal broke very early in his term, 3.) He remains popular with his base, and 4.) Mid-term election will unlikely bring out Democratic voters for “change”. The right Democratic opponent (and Melancon is not it) could make the race very interesting. With the statewide vote more evenly polarized than the national electorate (though I do believe that 2008 was a high watermark for the Dems, much as 1994 was for Repubs), I expect the 2010 race between Vitter and any Democratic opponent to be separated by 3 or 4 percentage points, at most. A 51/49, either way will not be surprising.

Again, I don’t pretend to know the inside baseball of NOLA politics, but it stands to reason that Nagin’s political base has always been spread thin.

In other words, I think his political base has always been unreliable– and that this problem has less to do with his ancestors and more to do with his own decisions on coalition-building. He didn’t beat Mitch Landrieu on substance or vision; he beat him with Republicans. It has always been a tenuous coalition.

It’s not cool, it’s something that’s not fun to talk about and it’s something that I found quite shocking when I learned of it. But it is a dynamic that affects politics in that city and one that has affected the ability for Nagin to solidify what should have been an easy base even in programs that benefited areas like the 9th Ward.

Whether it’s very politically correct or socially easy, you can’t realistically look at politics or most other dynamics of New Orleans without examining the role of race (and in this case descent), religion, creed, etc. It’s both one of the things that makes New Orleans great and one of the things that has worked to tear it apart.

One day it will hopefully not be an issue. For Nagin it has been.

Trust me I wouldn’t defend Nagin if he were wholly to blame. Hell man, I sold thousands of “Mayor Ray’s Famous New Orleans Recipe Chocolate Bars” back in ’05. The man has problems and probably spends more time tasting his shoe than tasting his food, but the ineffectiveness of the government down there is a blame that can’t be laid too strongly on him. From the people on the street to the people in congress from that region of the state, there are so many people who work against success in New Orleans. Nagin is only a minor player and figurehead for that particular failure.