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Archive for June 4th, 2008

Jun 4

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Why Obama Can Win Louisiana

Despite what my friends on the right may think, Louisiana will be competitive in the 2008 Presidential General Election. I offer the following observations:

- According to the latest (2006) statewide Census population estimate, Louisiana’s population has decreased by 4.1% since the year 2000. There are circumstantial reasons to believe that our State’s population has increased by as much as 2% during the past two years, including numerous reports regarding the population of the New Orleans Metropolitan Statistical Area.

- As I stated in a previous post, some on the right have created this myth of a massive diaspora of Democratically-leaning African-Americans. Regardless, Louisiana, as of 2006, had a population of 1,359,223 African-Americans, or 31.7% of the entire population. These are post-storm estimates; Louisiana still has the second-highest per capita population of African-Americans in the United States. All told, Louisiana lost only eight tenths of a percent of its African-American population after the storm. And that’s based on 2006 numbers.

- Louisiana Republicans did not support John McCain during the Republican Presidential primary. They supported Mike Huckabee. The vote broke down like this:

McCain’s victories are in dark red; Huckabee’s are in magenta.

- As this map illustrates, McCain’s victories were in the New Orleans area, Baton Rouge, and parts of Cajun Country. He failed to pick up a single parish in Northern Louisiana and only two in Central Louisiana. Huckabee carried Shreveport, Monroe, Alexandria, and Lake Charles.

- It’s worth noting: Alexandria has a Democratic mayor, Jacques Roy, who was elected with 76% of the vote. Monroe has an African-American Democratic mayor, Jamie Mayo. Shreveport has an African-American Democratic mayor, Cedric Glover. Lake Charles has a popular Democratic mayor, Randy Roach. (By the way, even though McCain carried Baton Rouge and New Orleans, it’s also worth noting: both have African-American Democratic mayors, Kip Holden and Ray Nagin).

- Republican turn-out paled in comparison to Democratic turn-out.

Democrats: 384,348

versus

Republicans: 161,319

- Compare that to a map of Obama’s and Clinton’s victories:

Hillary Clinton’s victories are in blue; Barack Obama’s are in cyan.

- This map obviously works in Obama’s favor, which is why he carried Louisiana. Obama won New Orleans, Baton Rouge, Alexandria, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Shreveport, and Monroe– every major metropolitan area in the State in every corner of the State.

- Every one of these cities, with the exception of Lafayette, has a Democratic mayor. Stated another way: every one of these cities, with the exception of Lafayette, has recently elected a Democrat to its highest office.

- Every one of these cities has a high population of African-Americans.

- Obama won fifteen of the eighteen parishes carried by McCain, with the exception of Avoyelles, St. Tammany, and St. Bernard. He was also able to win an additional twenty-nine parishes carried by Huckabee.

- All told, Obama won 44 parishes compared to Clinton’s 20. And Clinton still carried more parishes than McCain did.

- As Mike Stagg points out, there are more than 2.8 million registered voters in the State of Louisiana, more than half of whom (1.5 million) are Democrats. Borrowing Mike’s tables:

- Mike says it better than I can:

Obama’s victory in the nomination process has been built on a broad multi-ethnic coalition that has inspired African Americans and whites to reach out to each other again in an effort to try to get this nation to deliver on the promise of equality and fairness that it has offered but never fully delivered. That broad coalition, combined with a powerful yearning for change among large segments of the populace, helped produce the record turnout in primary elections across the country during this cycle.

- According to the most recent numbers from the Louisiana Secretary of State, there are approximately 720,287 registered Republicans, less than half of the number of registered Democrats (1,512,083).

- Proportionally, more Democrats turned out to vote in the primaries than did Republicans.

- Obviously, the swing vote will be what matters, and if the electoral primary map is any indication, John McCain has some serious problems, particularly if he is going to build his general election campaign around a theme of change from George Bush, an attempt to fashion himself as outside of the Republican base. Huckabee won the Republican base in Louisiana, and in the parallel Democratic primary, Obama won many of the same parishes as Huckabee. All told, Huckabee won only 17 parishes that were not won by Obama, the vast majority of which are rural.

- Higher voter-turnout due to the historic nature of this election (as well as the empirical trend of higher turn-out during Presidential elections) can only help Obama.

- We can change. We must change. And we will change.

- Kudos to WeCouldBeFamous for posting this video and for the subsequent analysis:

Ultimately, there were three Katrina investigations, one each by the House of Representatives, the Senate, and the Presidency. That which was produced by the House was boycotted by Democrats. That which was produced was the President was intended to be toilet paper. The Senate investigation was what the Democrats were left with after the independent commission was rejected in a vote down party lines.

This Senate investigation was launched on September 15th, 2005.

Thus, it was not “fully underway” when John McCain voted against the independent investigation on September 14th, 2005.

Levees.org is still demanding a real investigation of federal levee failures today.

Has McCain now flip-flopped to support an independent commission? Or is he just confused about where his “maverick” image ends and his vote to protect the Bush administration from being held accountable for the Katrina response begins?

Somebody should ask him.

Does Stephanie Grace of the Times-Picayune still think Katrina is “risk-free” for John McCain?

- On a related note, in this morning’s edition of The Town Talk, local Republican activist Wayne Ryan claims that Barack Obama has not authored or co-sponsored any bills since arriving at the United States Senate. I am not sure why the paper allowed this to go to print, considering it is a blatant lie and misrepresentation of the facts.

Wayne Ryan, president of the Rapides Parish Republican Executive Committee, said of Obama’s selection, “In the presidential race, I think it greatly increases our chances because they’ve chosen a candidate with almost no experience in government.”

To emphasize his point, Ryan said, “He’s in his first term in the Senate, and he’s spent the last 18 months running for president.”

He said Obama has authored no legislation nor co-sponsored any bills since coming to the U.S. Senate.

And the changes in foreign policy Obama talks about would return the country to the 1960s era when the Cold War was at its height, he said.

“I don’t think we need that,” Ryan said.

Mr. Ryan and the newspaper need only perform a routine Internet search in order to locate the bills Mr. Obama has both authored and co-sponsored.

Mr. Ryan and The Town Talk would find that during his first two years in the United States Senate, Mr. Obama authored 152 different bills on a wide range of issues. Senator Clinton, on the other hand, had only authored 20 bills in 6 years. Mr. Obama has co-sponsored even more.

- One more thing: Does anyone else find it ironic that John McCain used a completely staged “town hall meeting” to announce the sudden need for similar meetings with Mr. Obama? (H/t to David Brignac, who actually attended McCain’s Baton Rouge “town hall” meeting for giving us the full details. This is certainly a must-read).

Jun 4

KALB: Mayor Roy Speaks About City/Cleco Case

A couple of days ago, Mike Magnoli of KALB interviewed Alexandria Mayor Jacques Roy about the prospective resolution of the City of Alexandria versus Cleco case. The entire interview can be watched here. Check it out.

The joint statement issued by Cleco and the City reads (bold mine):

The parties have agreed in principle to resolve all disputes relating to Cleco’s past supply of power to Alexandria. Accounting for past transactions between the two entities is complex and based on numerous variables and assumptions. In light of this complexity, the mediation process was chosen over a trial to preserve a basis for a future business arrangement between the City and Cleco. Because of that choice, no findings were contemplated or made by the City of Alexandria and Cleco have arrived at a business judgment resolution that is forward looking. In that new agreement, Alexandria would continue to receive electricity and power services from Cleco under a new long-term contract that promises substantial savings to the City’s electric customers and Cleco would continue to contribute to the City’s growth and prosperity.

The dispute has been going on for well over two years, and it appears to be approaching a conclusion. From the Town Talk (bold mine):

In 2005, however, the city of Alexandria alleged in a lawsuit that Cleco committed fraud in a number of ways, including bidding up the price of electricity and then selling it to an unsuspecting Alexandria market.

Monday’s statement, which U.S. District Judge Dee Drell on May 23 ordered both sides to compose, also alluded to the complexities of selling power and proving fraud in a courtroom….

KPMG, an international consulting company, in early 2007 completed an audit of the city-Cleco transactions. Alexandria had its consultants with R.W. Beck overlook KPMG’s work. There is no mention of R.W. Beck’s report in Monday’s joint statement.

Roy said late Monday that eventually the public would have access to information on which city officials have based decisions, including parts of the Beck report not covered by Judge Drell’s gag order, issued in early 2006 as Cleco and Alexandria prepared for the audit. Drell’s order that seals the audit and prohibits those in the know from talking still stands.

By the way, although I work in the Mayor’s Office, I am not “in the know” about the details of this case, only the timeline of events. Negotiations and discussions are always discussed with the strictest scrutiny toward the judge’s orders.

It’s also worth noting that this process began way before Mayor Roy took office. Indeed, the resolution has been a long time coming.

Jun 4

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The Race is On! Expect to watch it on TV and hear it on the Radio.

Just as the final word has come that our 2008 presidential race will in fact be between John McCain and Barack Obama, so it seems that the folks with the money are lining up for a two-sided Senate race here in Louisiana. Already in select markets ads are running for and against incumbent Senator Mary Landrieu and State Treasurer John Kennedy.

One thing that seems to be becoming the norm for this year’s election cycle is an amplified repeat of what we saw in last year’s state legislative and gubernatorial races (for any hardcore red-staters out there, gubernatorial means of or relating to a governor ;^). That is, we are going to see a lot of coordinated media campaigns being paid for by big money organizations with very little ethical control. This is a bit of a new age for our political spectrum. Instead of attacking each other, candidates now enjoy armies of special interest groups who attack their opponents for them. These groups have no need to be concerned with libel, proof, character, or anything else. They say what they please so long as it’s to the detriment of their candidate’s opponent.

Likewise, candidates are able to channel such attacks through outside groups and thus avoid being held accountable for misinformation or looking bad when poor judgment is used to their advantage.

Pro-Kennedy and anti-Landrieu radio spots have already hit southeast Louisiana and the New Orleans metro area — these sponsored by a group calling themselves ‘Americans for Prosperity.” This group is both a 501-c4 political organization and a 501-c3 charitable foundation. It’s a neat trick that allows them to pay for political ads under the guise of “educating the public”. According to sourcewatch, AFP is run and primarily funded by donations from the Koch Foundation — the charitable arm of Koch Industries.

Indeed, the Chairman of Americans for Prosperity’s Board of Directors is David Koch.

David Koch
Chairman
David Koch is the executive vice president and a member of the board of directors for Koch Industries, Inc., based in Wichita, Kansas. He helped found Americans For Prosperity, and also serves on the board of directors for the Reason Foundation and the CATO Institute. David was the Libertarian Party candidate for vice president of the United States in 1980. He received his bachelor’s and master’s degree in chemical engineering from MIT.

Koch (pronounced ‘coke’) is the largest privately-held company in the United States, with annual sales of $90 billion.

They are a major player in the energy industry and are also a major polluter in places very close to home for us with their pipelines and operations, and as proven by the Department of Justice, Koch is responsible for over 300 major oil spills in the 1990′s alone.

 The action, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the
Southern District of Texas, charges that, since 1990, Koch and its
subsidiaries were responsible for more than 300 separate oil
spills.  The suit is being brought under the Clean Water Act, as
amended by the Oil Pollution Act of 1990.  The complaint seeks
penalties and a court order to require Koch to take such actions as
are necessary to protect U.S. waters and to eliminate future
spills.

Fined $35 million dollars by the EPA, Koch had two possible plans of action — change their act, or change the government.

Koch Industries, Inc. will pay the largest civil fine ever imposed on a company under any federal environmental law to resolve claims related to more than 300 oil spills from its pipelines and oil facilities in six states, the Justice Department and the U.S. EPA announced. A settlement filed today requires Koch, the second-largest privately held company in the United States, to pay a $30 million civil penalty, improve its leak-prevention programs, and spend $5 million on environmental projects.

"This record civil penalty will put those who transport hazardous materials on notice -- you cannot endanger public health or the environment," said Attorney General Janet Reno. "We will not let you foul our water and spoil our land by breaking the law."

They went the latter route donating mega-millions to Republican campaigns and channeling funds through Americans for Prosperity and other Republican groups.

After winning election with Koch’s help, George W. Bush and John Ashcroft dropped 88 separate charges faced by Koch Industries, saving the company $352 million dollars in fines. Amazingly enough Bush later appointed two Koch executives to top posts at the EPA — the very agency he had kept from regulating the company, including the integral post of Inspector General.

From the Center for Public Integrity:

Despite its size and political largesse, Koch is able to dodge the limelight because it is privately-held, meaning that nearly all of its business dealings are known primarily only by the company and the Internal Revenue Service. In fact, it is the second largest private company in the country, trailing only food processing giant Cargill.

Koch also prefers to operate in private when it comes to politics and government.

Although it is both a top campaign contributor and spends millions on direct lobbying, Koch’s chief political influence tool is a web of interconnected, right-wing think tanks and advocacy groups funded by foundations controlled and supported by the two Koch brothers.

Among those groups are some of the country’s most prominent conservative and libertarian voices including the Cato Institute, the Reason Foundation, Citizens for a Sound Economy and the Federalist Society. All regularly beat the drum in official Washington for the causes the Koch’s hold dear—minimal government, deregulation, and free market economics.

For the Kochs, conservative and libertarian views are a family tradition. Fred Koch, who founded the company’s predecessor in 1940, helped establish the ultra right-wing John Birch Society.

Some of Koch’s other political activities have been less exotic, but no less controversial.

For example, Charles Koch found himself under investigation by the U.S. Senate for his alleged role in funding so-called “issue ads” that helped conservative Republican congressional candidates in 1996.

Even critics seem awed by the Kochs’ ability to shape policy so effectively without drawing much attention to themselves.

“It’s astounding that so few people have ever heard of a family this rich and powerful and aggressive when it comes to policy and politics,” says Jeff Krehely, deputy director of the National Committee for Responsive Philanthropy, who co-authored a recent study on conservative think tanks, including those funded by the Kochs. “When you talk about Koch, most folks think you are talking about the soft drink company.”

Koch Industries did not respond to repeated phone calls and emails requesting interviews for this report.

David Koch, who ran for vice president on the Libertarian Party ticket in 1980, in an interview with National Journal, has described his philosophy this way: “My overall concept is to minimize the role of government and to maximize the role of the private economy to maximize personal freedoms.”

These are the type of people — no these ARE the people who are getting involved in our elections and who will be playing a major role over the next few months. This is definitely going to be a time where taking things with a grain of salt will be necessary. Also, it might be wise to find out who all these groups paying for ads really are. With Kennedy, I would hope we as a voting populous would ask why a major polluter operating in and around Louisiana is so interested in supporting the success of someone whom in his current job should have had little to do with them. Seems to me that some promises have probably been made and despite these Kennedy ads purporting his drive and passion for helping the people of Louisiana, it seems his loyalties are already lining up outside of the interests of our state and like his newfound mentor Bush — with anyone who can lay the buck in his pocket.

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Along with AFP and other groups, both sides — Democrat and Republican have their own more official crews readying the fight. Below are aired spots from both the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee:

I have to say, it seems like the case against Mary is pretty weak if that’s all the Repub’s could come up with so far…