According to a poll SurveyUSA conducted on 26-28 FEB, McCain will carry our state in the upcoming Presidential race: if Democrats nominate Barack Obama, McCain wins Louisiana 54-39; if Democrats nominate Hillary Clinton, McCain wins 51-41. Clinton is more competitive than Obama by a five point margin, which is larger than the poll’s margin of error of 4.1%.
The poll’s crosstabs provide a few explanations for Clinton’s ability to wage a more competitive race against McCain in Louisiana than Obama: Clinton wins women voters 47-45, while McCain wins this constituency 51-42 when matched against Obama; Clinton wins registered Democrats with a 38 point margin, while Obama wins this constituency with a 31 point margin; Clinton wins working class and poorer voters with a 17 point margin, while Obama wins this constituency with a 3 point margin; and Clinton attracts 5% more unaffiliated voters than Obama. Clinton is also more competitive than Obama in Orleans metro: she ties McCain 46-46 in southeast Louisiana, while Obama loses that region to McCain by a 10 point margin. Obama, however, attracts more African-American votes than Clinton: he wins this constituency 84-11, while Clinton carries this group 70-12.
Although the use value of SurveyUSA’s poll is somewhat limited at this early date, the results do warrant discussion and debate. Do you agree with the results? Who do you believe is the most electable Democrat in the state? Do you believe these results will change once Democrats select our nominee? And which nominee do you believe will help or hinder Democrats running for the US Senate and the US House in our state?